Is there going to be a Trump bump from this endorsement?
What’s happened here is that RFK junior has been falling in the polls.
Um, he was falling before Kamala Harris entered the race,
and then that fall accelerated after she entered the race.
One might think, therefore,
the people who had turned to him as a third can party candidate
were people who were sick of the existing options.
They didn’t want Biden and they didn’t want Trump,
and therefore they’d gone for someone else.
It appears that maybe some of them have thought, okay,
we might go to Harris. How many more of them will go to Trump
when he’d been an option all along?
I think it’s a different question.
He’s. He was polling at the end. He’s.
He’s polling to begin with maybe 15% or so.
It dropped right down to maybe 4% in the polls.
And I think you. While it might be expected that some of those
both voters would go to Donald Trump,
there’s also some evidence that people who say they support Robert F.
Kennedy junior are also less likely than other voters
to actually turn out in the election.
Yeah. So how much of a Trump bump?
I don’t know, but it.
It might make a little difference.
But let’s remember
little differences in and in tight races can still have an effect.
Don’t forget that in 2016,
Donald Trump won the election by just 80,000 votes in three states.