So everyone’s getting excited about Nvidia. Well, what do the analysts say? And why are analysts so wrong about stocks and target price as well? Okay, 40 best performing Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for each video in the last three months. The average price target is 144, which would mean a 17% rise from current price levels. The high forecast is 200, the low is 100. So basically they’ve pretty much covered every base. Except they haven’t. You’ve got 32 of them saying buy, so everybody thinks you should buy. Okay, fair enough. Uh, but you can see there’s this massive disparity in range. And listen, notoriously incorrect when it comes to forecasting stocks. So what might happen with an video? Well, I think you might as well. If you’re going to gamble around earnings, you might as well toss a coin. Uh, there’s a couple of things. If I was on T V, if I was on Bloomberg or BBC and they asked me, I would say either it can fall to its recent up trend, in which case you’re looking at a 20% drop, or it’ll go to an all time high. Okay, so you’re looking at roughly a 14% rise to the upside. You work out the risk reward. Of course it could completely boost that. Uh, but this is the near term. We’re talking right after earnings. I’m not talking about longer term. Longer term I think it’ll go up, but what the Hell is long term it is over bought, but it remains good growth and relatively undervalued. Uh, compared to historic levels it’s been at, uh. It’s been more overvalued. Okay, uh, but it is. The momentum is overbought in the sense that when you look at the moving average convergence divergence you’ve got it in the top third top quarter. So that’s the overbought bit. Uh, it doesn’t mean it can’t keep going up. It might. What I’m saying is it’s a coin toss before earnings. The closer you get to earnings, the more uh, the probabilities turn to 50 50. Unless. And that’s the subjective probabilities. Unless you have got some objective probability. Uh. And an objective probability would be inside information, which I certainly don’t have and do not deal in. What about seasonality is then? Well, history is not a guarantee of the future. August tends to be one of the best months uh. Where 81% time it’s an up month of the last 21 years and also tends to in terms of returns, uh. Be one of the highest uh. Returning months as well for the stock. So that looks pretty good. In fact, most of the months uh. Tend to be more likely than not, uh. Positive. So not bad. And here you can see what the analyst think. So Govin Sachs on 19th of August said bye, uh. Reiterating what they said on the 5th of August. Deutsche Bank said it on the 5th Of what they said hold. Uh, who else is important? U B S. Said bye. Morgan Stanley said bye. Cantor said bye. City Group, Jefferies all said bye. Well, like I said, these things don’t necessarily mean that the Alice will be accurate. For a very simple reason. I’m gonna show you it right now. Yes. Academia forecasting earnings and returns. A review of recent advancements. Essentially, what the academic research shows is that it’s a crapshoot when you are trying even using a machine learning advancements, statistical econometric advancements to forecast earnings and returns. Well, I’m afraid they find it incredibly difficult and it’s not likely to help. This is why I say closer you get to earnings, the more it’s just a coin toss whether it’s gonna go up or down. So I take a longer term perspective. I continue holding the Nvidia that I hold from January 2023. Well, I’ve got an endowment since January 2023, so it’s easier for me to hold then. I certainly won’t wanna buy it before earnings. Have a look at my links in the bio if you want to know why stocks like and video boosted my pension. Thank you very much.