The US Air Force intends to spend about $30 billion over the next five years fielding a replacement for the F22 Raptor and a fleet of AI enabled drone wingman to fly alongside it.
Now this effort known as the Next Generation Air Dominance program has been underway in one form or another since around 2,014, when Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall commissioned a secret study known as the Dominance Initiative. Now, DARPA came back about a year later with conclusions from that study, highlighting how not only could the US build a new fighter that was significantly more capable than even the F22 Raptor and F35 Lightning, too. But in doing so, modern technology would allow them to feel this new fighter as a family of systems rather than as a single platform. Now what that means is that this new aircraft is designed to fly at the center of a constellation of AI enabled drones, effectively making every single crude fighter into an entire formation onto itself.
Now, that Dominance Initiative report we now know led directly into a classified billion dollar Expo plane program that by 2020 had produced at least one flying technology demonstrator that had already broken some sort of record, though what record it broke, we still don’t know. I suspect it might have something to do with altitude. Since then, it’s been reported that there may be as many as three flying technology demonstrators related to this program, though today there are only two firms competing for the contract. Last year, Northrop Grumman bowed out of the effort, leaving it a race between Lockheed Merton and Boeing, who is currently suffering their fair share of political turmoil are arguably making this Lockheed Mertens race to lose. Now this new fighter is expected to deliver a similar leap in capability over today’s most advanced fifth generation fighters, the same way the F22 Raptor did back in the 1990s over fourth gen jets like the F15 and F16. So what exactly makes it so capable has not exactly been disclosed aside from those AI enabled drone wingmen, though, based on renders released by Lockheed Martin, Boeing and the US Air Force, it certainly looks as though these new fighters will prioritize low frequency stealth as well as the high frequency stealth fighter designs are already all about feeding.
Now what this ultimately means is that this new generation of stealth fighters would be significantly more difficult to detect and track then even today’s stealth fighters, leaning further into the stealth bomber approach to minimizing radar detectability. Now, the Air Force intends to award a contract for this new ngad fighter this year, with the ultimate intent of getting the first jets into service by the close of this decade. And just a few weeks ago, the Air Force awarded Phase 1 contracts to General Atomics and Andrew to continue development and testing on their AI enabled drone wingman. So the Air Force has been clear that they may award Phase 2 contracts to other firms to keep multiple efforts underway.
Ultimately, the Air Force intends to purchase at least 1,000 of these AI enabled wingmen, shown collectively as collaborative combat aircraft or CCAs, with the goal of fielding at least two drone wingmen for each of 300 new Block 4F30 Fives and another two each for at least 200 new Next Generation Air Dominance or ngad fighters. Now, the air force wants these drones in service by 2028, and again, the ngad fighter in service by 2030. And there are similar follow on efforts underway for the US Navy and the US Marine Corps, at least in terms of drones. The Navy is developing its own sixth generation fighter called FA XX, born out of the very same next generation air dominance X plane program. So the navies been clear that they will field their own fighter design that will likely share modular systems in common with the Air Force fighter. Even the same can be said for the navy’s forthcoming CCA drones. And the CCA drones in development for the US Marine Corps. They will see different designs that will again share modular systems in common across the fleet. And what this ultimately means is that while the F22 Raptor is amid a significant upgrade that will make it an absolute powerhouse for years to come. Its rain as the king of the skies is very likely coming to a close and we may just get a glimpse at the air to the throne any day now when contracts are awarded.